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PIF vs Turku PS — Ykkönen 2018

PIF
PIF
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Turku PS
Turku PS
7/10/2022YkkönenYkkönen · Round 9Pajbackan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

PIF21%
×Draw23%
Turku PS56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PIF
1.01
Turku PS
1.80

Turku PS creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 53 away

creates per match

PIF
1.08
Turku PS
1.38

allows per match

PIF
2.23
Turku PS
0.94

finishing

PIF+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PIF ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

PIF or draw
44%
PIF or Turku PS
77%
Draw or Turku PS
79%

Winning margin

PIF wins by 2+
7%
Turku PS wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

PIF 1+ goals
64%
PIF 2+ goals
27%
PIF 3+ goals
8%
Turku PS 1+ goals
83%
Turku PS 2+ goals
54%
Turku PS 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

PIF (draw refunded)
27%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PIF at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.94 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PIF attack 1.08 + Turku PS defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.01

Turku PS attack 1.38 + PIF defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

PIF scores more
21%
level
23%
Turku PS scores more
56%

Turku PS at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: PIF 0–2 Turku PS

Turku PS beat PIF 2-0 in Ykkönen on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Pajbackan kenttä in Parainen.