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PIF vs SalPa — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

PIF
PIF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SalPa
SalPa
9/11/2021Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 11Pajbackan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

PIF40%
×Draw23%
SalPa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PIF
1.69
SalPa
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 53 away

creates per match

PIF
2.00
SalPa
1.64

allows per match

PIF
1.60
SalPa
1.38

finishing

PIF+0.00on par
SalPa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PIF ↓

SalPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

PIF or draw
63%
PIF or SalPa
77%
Draw or SalPa
60%

Winning margin

PIF wins by 2+
20%
SalPa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

PIF 1+ goals
82%
PIF 2+ goals
50%
PIF 3+ goals
24%
SalPa 1+ goals
80%
SalPa 2+ goals
48%
SalPa 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

PIF (draw refunded)
52%
SalPa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

SalPa away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PIF attack 2.00 + SalPa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

SalPa attack 1.64 + PIF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PIF scores more
40%
level
23%
SalPa scores more
37%

PIF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PIF vs SalPa

PIF beat SalPa 3-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Pajbackan kenttä in Parainen.