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PIF vs FF Jaro — Ykkönen 2018

PIF
PIF
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FF Jaro
FF Jaro
6/22/2022YkkönenYkkönen · Round 7Pajbackan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

PIF26%
×Draw23%
FF Jaro50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PIF
1.24
FF Jaro
1.80

FF Jaro creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

creates per match

PIF
1.08
FF Jaro
1.38

allows per match

PIF
2.23
FF Jaro
1.40

finishing

PIF+0.00on par
FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PIF ↓

FF Jaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

PIF or draw
50%
PIF or FF Jaro
77%
Draw or FF Jaro
74%

Winning margin

PIF wins by 2+
11%
FF Jaro wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

PIF 1+ goals
71%
PIF 2+ goals
35%
PIF 3+ goals
13%
FF Jaro 1+ goals
83%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
54%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

PIF (draw refunded)
34%
FF Jaro (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PIF at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.40 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PIF attack 1.08 + FF Jaro defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

FF Jaro attack 1.38 + PIF defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

PIF scores more
26%
level
23%
FF Jaro scores more
50%

FF Jaro at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: PIF 0–2 FF Jaro

FF Jaro beat PIF 2-0 in Ykkönen on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Pajbackan kenttä in Parainen.