Pietà Hotspurs 2–0 Xewkija Tigers: Result & Stats

Pietà Hotspurs

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Xewkija Tigers

1/15/2023

FA Trophy · 1st RoundVictor Tedesco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pietà Hotspurs53%

×Draw21%

Xewkija Tigers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pietà HotspursExpected goals in this matchXewkija Tigers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.38

Pietà Hotspurs

2.08

Xewkija Tigers

1.38

Pietà Hotspurs creates 51% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.75

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Pietà Hotspurs

2.00

Xewkija Tigers

1.00

allows per match

Pietà Hotspurs

1.75

Xewkija Tigers

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pietà Hotspurs+0.00on par

Xewkija Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pietà Hotspurs ↓

Xewkija Tigers →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Pietà Hotspurs or draw

75%

Pietà Hotspurs or Xewkija Tigers

79%

Draw or Xewkija Tigers

47%

Winning margin

Pietà Hotspurs wins by 2+

32%

Xewkija Tigers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pietà Hotspurs 1+ goals

87%

Pietà Hotspurs 2+ goals

61%

Pietà Hotspurs 3+ goals

34%

Xewkija Tigers 1+ goals

75%

Xewkija Tigers 2+ goals

40%

Xewkija Tigers 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Pietà Hotspurs (draw refunded)

68%

Xewkija Tigers (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pietà Hotspurs at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Xewkija Tigers away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pietà Hotspurs attack 2.00 + Xewkija Tigers defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Xewkija Tigers attack 1.00 + Pietà Hotspurs defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pietà Hotspurs scores more

53%

level

21%

Xewkija Tigers scores more

25%

Pietà Hotspurs at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pietà Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff