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Piešťany vs Zbrojovka Brno II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Piešťany
Piešťany
FT
1 – 0
Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
2/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Piešťany46%
×Draw24%
Zbrojovka Brno II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piešťany
1.64
Zbrojovka Brno II
1.27

Piešťany creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Piešťany
1.67
Zbrojovka Brno II
1.20

allows per match

Piešťany
1.33
Zbrojovka Brno II
1.60

finishing

Piešťany+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piešťany ↓

Zbrojovka Brno II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Piešťany or draw
70%
Piešťany or Zbrojovka Brno II
76%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno II
54%

Winning margin

Piešťany wins by 2+
24%
Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Piešťany 1+ goals
81%
Piešťany 2+ goals
49%
Piešťany 3+ goals
23%
Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
72%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
36%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Piešťany (draw refunded)
61%
Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piešťany at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Zbrojovka Brno II away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piešťany attack 1.67 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 1.20 + Piešťany defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Piešťany scores more
46%
level
24%
Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
30%

Piešťany at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Piešťany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Piešťany 1–0 Zbrojovka Brno II

Piešťany beat Zbrojovka Brno II 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 18, 2026.