Piešťany 4–3 Strání: Result & Stats

Piešťany

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Strání

Unknown 72', 61', 48', 46'

Unknown 87', 74', 58'

7/10/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Piešťany41%

×Draw24%

Strání34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PiešťanyExpected goals in this matchStrání

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.42

Piešťany

1.58

Strání

1.42

Piešťany creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.50

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Piešťany

1.67

Strání

1.50

allows per match

Piešťany

1.33

Strání

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piešťany+0.00on par

Strání+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piešťany ↓

Strání →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Piešťany or draw

66%

Piešťany or Strání

76%

Draw or Strání

59%

Winning margin

Piešťany wins by 2+

21%

Strání wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Piešťany 1+ goals

79%

Piešťany 2+ goals

47%

Piešťany 3+ goals

21%

Strání 1+ goals

76%

Strání 2+ goals

41%

Strání 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Piešťany (draw refunded)

55%

Strání (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Piešťany at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Strání away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Piešťany attack 1.67 + Strání defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Strání attack 1.50 + Piešťany defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Piešťany scores more

41%

level

24%

Strání scores more

34%

Piešťany at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Piešťany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

48'

58'

61'

72'

74'

87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff