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Piast Żmigród vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
FT
1 – 1
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
8/15/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Piast Żmigród54%
×Draw20%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Żmigród
2.23
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.47

Piast Żmigród creates 52% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

creates per match

Piast Żmigród
1.34
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.28

allows per match

Piast Żmigród
1.66
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3.11

finishing

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par
Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Żmigród ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Piast Żmigród or draw
75%
Piast Żmigród or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
80%
Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
46%

Winning margin

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
33%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
89%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
65%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
38%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
77%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
43%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
68%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Żmigród at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Żmigród attack 1.34 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.23

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Piast Żmigród defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Piast Żmigród scores more
54%
level
20%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
25%

Piast Żmigród at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Piast Żmigród will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Piast Żmigród vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Piast Żmigród and Polonia-Stal Świdnica drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Żmigród.