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Piast Żmigród vs Polonia Nysa — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
FT
4 – 0
Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa
5/26/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 33Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Piast Żmigród45%
×Draw23%
Polonia Nysa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Żmigród
1.76
Polonia Nysa
1.43

Piast Żmigród creates 23% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

creates per match

Piast Żmigród
1.34
Polonia Nysa
1.20

allows per match

Piast Żmigród
1.66
Polonia Nysa
2.18

finishing

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par
Polonia Nysa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Żmigród ↓

Polonia Nysa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Piast Żmigród or draw
69%
Piast Żmigród or Polonia Nysa
77%
Draw or Polonia Nysa
55%

Winning margin

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
24%
Polonia Nysa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
83%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
52%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
26%
Polonia Nysa 1+ goals
76%
Polonia Nysa 2+ goals
42%
Polonia Nysa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
59%
Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Żmigród at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

Polonia Nysa away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Żmigród attack 1.34 + Polonia Nysa defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Polonia Nysa attack 1.20 + Piast Żmigród defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Piast Żmigród scores more
45%
level
23%
Polonia Nysa scores more
31%

Piast Żmigród at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Piast Żmigród will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Piast Żmigród 4–0 Polonia Nysa

Piast Żmigród beat Polonia Nysa 4-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Żmigród.