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Piast Żmigród vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
5/21/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 30Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Piast Żmigród43%
×Draw24%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Żmigród
1.64
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.40

Piast Żmigród creates 17% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 68 away

creates per match

Piast Żmigród
1.34
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.13

allows per match

Piast Żmigród
1.66
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.93

finishing

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Żmigród ↓

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Piast Żmigród or draw
67%
Piast Żmigród or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
76%
Draw or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
57%

Winning margin

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
22%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
81%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
49%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
23%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
75%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
41%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
57%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Żmigród at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Żmigród attack 1.34 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.13 + Piast Żmigród defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Piast Żmigród scores more
43%
level
24%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
33%

Piast Żmigród at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Piast Żmigród will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Piast Żmigród vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra beat Piast Żmigród 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Żmigród.