Piast Gliwice 0–2 Plzen: Result & Stats

Piast Gliwice

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Plzen

1/12/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Melia Villaitana Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Piast Gliwice29%

×Draw25%

Plzen46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piast GliwiceExpected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.52

Piast Gliwice

1.15

Plzen

1.52

Plzen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

2.38

0.67

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Piast Gliwice

1.67

Plzen

2.38

allows per match

Piast Gliwice

0.67

Plzen

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Plzen →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw

54%

Piast Gliwice or Plzen

75%

Draw or Plzen

71%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

11%

Plzen wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

68%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

32%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

11%

Plzen 1+ goals

78%

Plzen 2+ goals

45%

Plzen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

39%

Plzen (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Plzen away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.67 + Plzen defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

Plzen attack 2.38 + Piast Gliwice defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more

29%

level

25%

Plzen scores more

46%

Plzen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff