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Phuntsholing Heroes vs Tensung — Premier League 2023

Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
FT
5 – 1
Tensung
Tensung
6/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2PSA Phuentsholing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Phuntsholing Heroes39%
×Draw19%
Tensung42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phuntsholing Heroes
2.31
Tensung
2.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

creates per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
2.00
Tensung
1.03

allows per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
3.78
Tensung
2.63

finishing

Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par
Tensung+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phuntsholing Heroes ↓

Tensung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Phuntsholing Heroes or draw
58%
Phuntsholing Heroes or Tensung
81%
Draw or Tensung
61%

Winning margin

Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
22%
Tensung wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
90%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
67%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
40%
Tensung 1+ goals
91%
Tensung 2+ goals
69%
Tensung 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
48%
Tensung (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phuntsholing Heroes at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Tensung away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 2.00 + Tensung defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.31

Tensung attack 1.03 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
39%
level
19%
Tensung scores more
42%

Tensung at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tensung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phuntsholing Heroes vs Tensung

Phuntsholing Heroes beat Tensung 5-1 in Premier League on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at PSA Phuentsholing Stadium in Phuentsholing.