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Phuntsholing Heroes vs Bhutan U19 — Premier League 2023

Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
FT
2 – 1
Bhutan U19
Bhutan U19
5/16/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1PSA Phuentsholing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Phuntsholing Heroes37%
×Draw19%
Bhutan U1944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phuntsholing Heroes
2.29
Bhutan U19
2.52

Bhutan U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

creates per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
2.00
Bhutan U19
1.26

allows per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
3.78
Bhutan U19
2.57

finishing

Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par
Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phuntsholing Heroes ↓

Bhutan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Phuntsholing Heroes or draw
56%
Phuntsholing Heroes or Bhutan U19
81%
Draw or Bhutan U19
63%

Winning margin

Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
20%
Bhutan U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
90%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
66%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
40%
Bhutan U19 1+ goals
92%
Bhutan U19 2+ goals
71%
Bhutan U19 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
45%
Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phuntsholing Heroes at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Bhutan U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 2.00 + Bhutan U19 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Bhutan U19 attack 1.26 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
37%
level
19%
Bhutan U19 scores more
44%

Bhutan U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bhutan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phuntsholing Heroes vs Bhutan U19

Phuntsholing Heroes beat Bhutan U19 2-1 in Premier League on May 16, 2024.

The match was played at PSA Phuentsholing Stadium in Phuentsholing.