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Phú Thọ vs Sanna Khanh Hoa — V.League 2 2020

Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sanna Khanh Hoa
Sanna Khanh Hoa
7/1/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 5Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Phú Thọ26%
×Draw31%
Sanna Khanh Hoa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phú Thọ
0.82
Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.13

Sanna Khanh Hoa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 43 away

creates per match

Phú Thọ
0.67
Sanna Khanh Hoa
0.86

allows per match

Phú Thọ
1.39
Sanna Khanh Hoa
0.98

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par
Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Sanna Khanh Hoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw
57%
Phú Thọ or Sanna Khanh Hoa
69%
Draw or Sanna Khanh Hoa
74%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+
8%
Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals
56%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
20%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
5%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals
68%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals
31%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
38%
Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 0.67 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.82

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 0.86 + Phú Thọ defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Phú Thọ scores more
26%
level
31%
Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more
43%

Sanna Khanh Hoa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sanna Khanh Hoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phú Thọ vs Sanna Khanh Hoa

Sanna Khanh Hoa beat Phú Thọ 2-1 in V.League 2 on July 1, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Việt Trì in Việt Trì.