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Phú Thọ vs Phu Dong — V.League 2 2020

Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Phu Dong
Phu Dong
7/22/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 8Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Phú Thọ25%
×Draw29%
Phu Dong46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phú Thọ
0.84
Phu Dong
1.24

Phu Dong creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 43 away

creates per match

Phú Thọ
0.67
Phu Dong
1.09

allows per match

Phú Thọ
1.39
Phu Dong
1.02

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par
Phu Dong+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Phu Dong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw
54%
Phú Thọ or Phu Dong
71%
Draw or Phu Dong
75%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+
8%
Phu Dong wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals
57%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
21%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
5%
Phu Dong 1+ goals
71%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
35%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
36%
Phu Dong (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Phu Dong away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 0.67 + Phu Dong defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.84

Phu Dong attack 1.09 + Phú Thọ defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Phú Thọ scores more
25%
level
29%
Phu Dong scores more
46%

Phu Dong at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phú Thọ vs Phu Dong

Phu Dong beat Phú Thọ 1-0 in V.League 2 on July 22, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Việt Trì in Việt Trì.