Phu Dong 2–0 Phú Thọ: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Phu Dong

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Phú Thọ

5/26/2023

V.League 2 · Round 5Sân vận động Ninh Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Phu Dong51%

×Draw26%

Phú Thọ23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phu DongExpected goals in this matchPhú Thọ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.89

Phu Dong

1.48

Phú Thọ

0.89

Phu Dong creates 66% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 33 away

1.21

creates per match

0.73

1.05

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Phu Dong

1.21

Phú Thọ

0.73

allows per match

Phu Dong

1.05

Phú Thọ

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par

Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Phú Thọ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw

77%

Phu Dong or Phú Thọ

74%

Draw or Phú Thọ

49%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+

26%

Phú Thọ wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals

77%

Phu Dong 2+ goals

43%

Phu Dong 3+ goals

19%

Phú Thọ 1+ goals

59%

Phú Thọ 2+ goals

22%

Phú Thọ 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)

69%

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Phú Thọ away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.21 + Phú Thọ defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Phú Thọ attack 0.73 + Phu Dong defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Phu Dong scores more

51%

level

26%

Phú Thọ scores more

23%

Phu Dong at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff