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Phú Thọ vs Hòa Bình — V.League 2 2020

Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hòa Bình
Hòa Bình
3/1/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 11Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Phú Thọ32%
×Draw32%
Hòa Bình37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phú Thọ
0.91
Hòa Bình
1.00

Hòa Bình creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

creates per match

Phú Thọ
0.67
Hòa Bình
0.62

allows per match

Phú Thọ
1.39
Hòa Bình
1.14

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par
Hòa Bình+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Hòa Bình →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw
63%
Phú Thọ or Hòa Bình
68%
Draw or Hòa Bình
68%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+
11%
Hòa Bình wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals
60%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
23%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
6%
Hòa Bình 1+ goals
63%
Hòa Bình 2+ goals
26%
Hòa Bình 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
46%
Hòa Bình (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Hòa Bình away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 0.67 + Hòa Bình defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Hòa Bình attack 0.62 + Phú Thọ defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Phú Thọ scores more
32%
level
32%
Hòa Bình scores more
37%

Hòa Bình at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hòa Bình will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Phú Thọ 1–1 Hòa Bình

Phú Thọ and Hòa Bình drew 1-1 in V.League 2 on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Việt Trì in Việt Trì.