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Phú Thọ vs Can Tho — V.League 2 2020

Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Can Tho
Can Tho
8/26/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 13Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Phú Thọ38%
×Draw27%
Can Tho36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phú Thọ
1.31
Can Tho
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

creates per match

Phú Thọ
0.67
Can Tho
1.14

allows per match

Phú Thọ
1.39
Can Tho
1.95

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par
Can Tho+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Can Tho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw
64%
Phú Thọ or Can Tho
73%
Draw or Can Tho
62%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+
17%
Can Tho wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals
73%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
38%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
14%
Can Tho 1+ goals
72%
Can Tho 2+ goals
36%
Can Tho 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
52%
Can Tho (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Can Tho away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 0.67 + Can Tho defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.31

Can Tho attack 1.14 + Phú Thọ defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Phú Thọ scores more
38%
level
27%
Can Tho scores more
36%

Phú Thọ at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Phú Thọ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phú Thọ vs Can Tho

Can Tho beat Phú Thọ 2-1 in V.League 2 on August 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Việt Trì in Việt Trì.