Phu Dong 0–0 Quang Nam: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Phu Dong

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Quang Nam

4/15/2023

V.League 2 · Round 3Sân vận động Ninh Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Phu Dong35%

×Draw28%

Quang Nam36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phu DongExpected goals in this matchQuang Nam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.17

Phu Dong

1.15

Quang Nam

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 24 away

1.21

creates per match

1.29

1.05

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Phu Dong

1.21

Quang Nam

1.29

allows per match

Phu Dong

1.05

Quang Nam

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par

Quang Nam+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Quang Nam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw

64%

Phu Dong or Quang Nam

72%

Draw or Quang Nam

65%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+

15%

Quang Nam wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals

68%

Phu Dong 2+ goals

32%

Phu Dong 3+ goals

11%

Quang Nam 1+ goals

69%

Quang Nam 2+ goals

33%

Quang Nam 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)

49%

Quang Nam (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Quang Nam away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.21 + Quang Nam defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Quang Nam attack 1.29 + Phu Dong defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Phu Dong scores more

35%

level

28%

Quang Nam scores more

36%

Quang Nam at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Quang Nam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff