Phu Dong 0–0 Dong Nai: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Phu Dong

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dong Nai

12/17/2023

V.League 2 · Round 7Sân vận động Ninh Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Phu Dong52%

×Draw28%

Dong Nai20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phu DongExpected goals in this matchDong Nai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.73

Phu Dong

1.35

Dong Nai

0.73

Phu Dong creates 85% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 20 away

1.21

creates per match

0.40

1.05

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Phu Dong

1.21

Dong Nai

0.40

allows per match

Phu Dong

1.05

Dong Nai

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par

Dong Nai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Dong Nai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw

80%

Phu Dong or Dong Nai

72%

Draw or Dong Nai

48%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+

25%

Dong Nai wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals

74%

Phu Dong 2+ goals

39%

Phu Dong 3+ goals

15%

Dong Nai 1+ goals

52%

Dong Nai 2+ goals

17%

Dong Nai 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)

72%

Dong Nai (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Dong Nai away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.21 + Dong Nai defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dong Nai attack 0.40 + Phu Dong defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Phu Dong scores more

52%

level

28%

Dong Nai scores more

20%

Phu Dong at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff