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Phu Dong vs Bóng đá Huế — V.League 2 2020

Phu Dong
Phu Dong
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
Nguyen Van Van 79' (pen)
Q. N. Hoang 90+4'
T. Van Bun 90'
T. M. Ho 23' (pen)
5/24/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 19Sân vận động Ninh Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Phu Dong46%
×Draw27%
Bóng đá Huế27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phu Dong
1.40
Bóng đá Huế
1.00

Phu Dong creates 40% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 51 away

creates per match

Phu Dong
1.21
Bóng đá Huế
0.96

allows per match

Phu Dong
1.05
Bóng đá Huế
1.59

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par
Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Bóng đá Huế →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw
73%
Phu Dong or Bóng đá Huế
73%
Draw or Bóng đá Huế
54%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+
22%
Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals
75%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
41%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
17%
Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
63%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
26%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)
63%
Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Bóng đá Huế away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.21 + Bóng đá Huế defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.96 + Phu Dong defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Phu Dong scores more
46%
level
27%
Bóng đá Huế scores more
27%

Phu Dong at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
T. M. HoPenalty
79'
Nguyen Van VanPenalty
90'
T. Van Bun
90+4'
Q. N. Hoang

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Phu Dong 1–3 Bóng đá Huế

Bóng đá Huế beat Phu Dong 3-1 in V.League 2 on May 24, 2024.

Goals: T. M. Ho (23' pen), Nguyen Van Van (79' pen), T. Van Bun (90'), Q. N. Hoang (90+4').

The match was played at Sân vận động Ninh Bình in Ninh Bình.