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Phu Dong vs Bóng đá Huế — Cup 2019

Phu Dong
Phu Dong
FT
1 – 0
Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
4/25/2021CupCup · 1st RoundSân vận động Thanh Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Phu Dong56%
×Draw27%
Bóng đá Huế17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phu Dong
1.45
Bóng đá Huế
0.65

Phu Dong creates 123% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Phu Dong
1.57
Bóng đá Huế
0.00

allows per match

Phu Dong
1.29
Bóng đá Huế
1.33

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par
Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Bóng đá Huế →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw
83%
Phu Dong or Bóng đá Huế
73%
Draw or Bóng đá Huế
44%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+
29%
Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals
77%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
42%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
18%
Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
48%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
14%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)
77%
Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Bóng đá Huế away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.57 + Bóng đá Huế defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.00 + Phu Dong defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Phu Dong scores more
56%
level
27%
Bóng đá Huế scores more
17%

Phu Dong at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Phu Dong 1–0 Bóng đá Huế

Phu Dong beat Bóng đá Huế 1-0 in Cup on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thanh Trì in Hanoi.