Phrae United 0–0 Udon Thani: Result & Stats

Phrae United

FT

0 – 0

Udon Thani

3/1/2020

Thai League 2 · Round 4Huaimah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Phrae United53%

×Draw23%

Udon Thani24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phrae UnitedExpected goals in this matchUdon Thani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.10

Phrae United

1.77

Udon Thani

1.10

Phrae United creates 61% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 81 away

1.65

creates per match

1.16

1.05

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Phrae United

1.65

Udon Thani

1.16

allows per match

Phrae United

1.05

Udon Thani

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phrae United+0.00on par

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phrae United ↓

Udon Thani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Phrae United or draw

76%

Phrae United or Udon Thani

77%

Draw or Udon Thani

47%

Winning margin

Phrae United wins by 2+

29%

Udon Thani wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Phrae United 1+ goals

83%

Phrae United 2+ goals

53%

Phrae United 3+ goals

26%

Udon Thani 1+ goals

67%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

30%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Phrae United (draw refunded)

69%

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phrae United at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.89 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phrae United attack 1.65 + Udon Thani defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.77

Udon Thani attack 1.16 + Phrae United defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Phrae United scores more

53%

level

23%

Udon Thani scores more

24%

Phrae United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Phrae United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff