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Phrae United vs Sisaket — Thai League 2 2018

Phrae United
Phrae United
FT
2 – 2
Sisaket
Sisaket
3/24/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 32Huaimah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Phrae United47%
×Draw26%
Sisaket27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phrae United
1.46
Sisaket
1.03

Phrae United creates 42% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 48 away

creates per match

Phrae United
1.66
Sisaket
1.00

allows per match

Phrae United
1.06
Sisaket
1.25

finishing

Phrae United+0.00on par
Sisaket+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phrae United ↓

Sisaket →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Phrae United or draw
73%
Phrae United or Sisaket
74%
Draw or Sisaket
53%

Winning margin

Phrae United wins by 2+
23%
Sisaket wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Phrae United 1+ goals
77%
Phrae United 2+ goals
43%
Phrae United 3+ goals
18%
Sisaket 1+ goals
64%
Sisaket 2+ goals
28%
Sisaket 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Phrae United (draw refunded)
64%
Sisaket (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phrae United at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Sisaket away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phrae United attack 1.66 + Sisaket defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sisaket attack 1.00 + Phrae United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Phrae United scores more
47%
level
26%
Sisaket scores more
27%

Phrae United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Phrae United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phrae United vs Sisaket

Phrae United and Sisaket drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Huaimah Stadium in Huai Ma.