Phrae United 4–0 Samut Sakhon FC: Result & Stats

Phrae United

FT

4 – 0

Samut Sakhon FC

2/13/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 21Huaimah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Phrae United64%

×Draw20%

Samut Sakhon FC16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phrae UnitedExpected goals in this matchSamut Sakhon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.99

Phrae United

2.17

Samut Sakhon FC

0.99

Phrae United creates 119% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 48 away

1.66

creates per match

0.92

1.06

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Phrae United

1.66

Samut Sakhon FC

0.92

allows per match

Phrae United

1.06

Samut Sakhon FC

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phrae United+0.00on par

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phrae United ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Phrae United or draw

84%

Phrae United or Samut Sakhon FC

80%

Draw or Samut Sakhon FC

36%

Winning margin

Phrae United wins by 2+

41%

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Phrae United 1+ goals

89%

Phrae United 2+ goals

64%

Phrae United 3+ goals

36%

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals

63%

Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals

26%

Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Phrae United (draw refunded)

80%

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phrae United at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phrae United attack 1.66 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.92 + Phrae United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Phrae United scores more

64%

level

20%

Samut Sakhon FC scores more

16%

Phrae United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Phrae United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff