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Phrae United vs Rayong FC — FA Cup 2018

Phrae United
Phrae Unitedadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
1/29/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Huaimah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Phrae United40%
×Draw22%
Rayong FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phrae United
1.85
Rayong FC
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Phrae United
2.20
Rayong FC
2.67

allows per match

Phrae United
0.90
Rayong FC
1.50

finishing

Phrae United+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phrae United ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Phrae United or draw
62%
Phrae United or Rayong FC
78%
Draw or Rayong FC
60%

Winning margin

Phrae United wins by 2+
21%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Phrae United 1+ goals
84%
Phrae United 2+ goals
55%
Phrae United 3+ goals
28%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
83%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
53%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Phrae United (draw refunded)
52%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phrae United at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phrae United attack 2.20 + Rayong FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Rayong FC attack 2.67 + Phrae United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Phrae United scores more
40%
level
22%
Rayong FC scores more
38%

Phrae United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Phrae United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Phrae United 1–0 Rayong FC

Phrae United beat Rayong FC 1-0 in FA Cup on January 29, 2025.

The match was played at Huaimah Stadium in Huai Ma.