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Phrae United vs Navy FC — Thai League 2 2018

Phrae United
Phrae United
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Navy FC
Navy FC
9/5/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 1Huaimah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Phrae United56%
×Draw23%
Navy FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phrae United
1.86
Navy FC
1.04

Phrae United creates 79% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 51 away

creates per match

Phrae United
1.66
Navy FC
1.02

allows per match

Phrae United
1.06
Navy FC
2.06

finishing

Phrae United+0.00on par
Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phrae United ↓

Navy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Phrae United or draw
79%
Phrae United or Navy FC
77%
Draw or Navy FC
44%

Winning margin

Phrae United wins by 2+
32%
Navy FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Phrae United 1+ goals
84%
Phrae United 2+ goals
55%
Phrae United 3+ goals
28%
Navy FC 1+ goals
65%
Navy FC 2+ goals
28%
Navy FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Phrae United (draw refunded)
73%
Navy FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phrae United at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phrae United attack 1.66 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.86

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Phrae United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Phrae United scores more
56%
level
23%
Navy FC scores more
21%

Phrae United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Phrae United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Phrae United 4–0 Navy FC

Phrae United beat Navy FC 4-0 in Thai League 2 on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Huaimah Stadium in Huai Ma.