Phrae United 5–2 Krabi FC: Result & Stats

Phrae United

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Krabi FC

10/20/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 9Huaimah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Phrae United59%

×Draw22%

Krabi FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phrae UnitedExpected goals in this matchKrabi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.00

Phrae United

1.94

Krabi FC

1.00

Phrae United creates 94% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 48 away

1.66

creates per match

0.94

1.06

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Phrae United

1.66

Krabi FC

0.94

allows per match

Phrae United

1.06

Krabi FC

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phrae United+0.00on par

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phrae United ↓

Krabi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Phrae United or draw

81%

Phrae United or Krabi FC

78%

Draw or Krabi FC

41%

Winning margin

Phrae United wins by 2+

35%

Krabi FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Phrae United 1+ goals

86%

Phrae United 2+ goals

58%

Phrae United 3+ goals

30%

Krabi FC 1+ goals

63%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

26%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Phrae United (draw refunded)

76%

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phrae United at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phrae United attack 1.66 + Krabi FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + Phrae United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Phrae United scores more

59%

level

22%

Krabi FC scores more

19%

Phrae United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Phrae United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff