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Phrae United vs Kohkwang — FA Cup 2018

Phrae United
Phrae United
FT
4 – 0
Kohkwang
Kohkwang
6/27/2018FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Phrae United75%
×Draw17%
Kohkwang8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phrae United
2.27
Kohkwang
0.61

Phrae United creates 272% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Phrae United
2.20
Kohkwang
0.33

allows per match

Phrae United
0.90
Kohkwang
2.33

finishing

Phrae United+0.00on par
Kohkwang+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phrae United ↓

Kohkwang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Phrae United or draw
92%
Phrae United or Kohkwang
83%
Draw or Kohkwang
25%

Winning margin

Phrae United wins by 2+
51%
Kohkwang wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Phrae United 1+ goals
90%
Phrae United 2+ goals
66%
Phrae United 3+ goals
39%
Kohkwang 1+ goals
46%
Kohkwang 2+ goals
13%
Kohkwang 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Phrae United (draw refunded)
90%
Kohkwang (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phrae United at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Kohkwang away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phrae United attack 2.20 + Kohkwang defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

Kohkwang attack 0.33 + Phrae United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Phrae United scores more
75%
level
17%
Kohkwang scores more
8%

Phrae United at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Phrae United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phrae United vs Kohkwang

Phrae United beat Kohkwang 4-0 in FA Cup on June 27, 2018.