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Phoenix Rising vs Ventura County — USL Championship 2018

Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ventura County
Ventura County
4/10/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 7Phoenix Rising Stadium at Wild Horse Pass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Phoenix Rising58%
×Draw21%
Ventura County22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phoenix Rising
2.10
Ventura County
1.21

Phoenix Rising creates 74% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 77 away

creates per match

Phoenix Rising
2.17
Ventura County
1.39

allows per match

Phoenix Rising
1.04
Ventura County
2.04

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par
Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

Ventura County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw
78%
Phoenix Rising or Ventura County
79%
Draw or Ventura County
42%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
35%
Ventura County wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
88%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
62%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
35%
Ventura County 1+ goals
70%
Ventura County 2+ goals
34%
Ventura County 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
73%
Ventura County (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.04 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + Ventura County defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.10

Ventura County attack 1.39 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more
58%
level
21%
Ventura County scores more
22%

Phoenix Rising at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Phoenix Rising 3–1 Ventura County

Phoenix Rising beat Ventura County 3-1 in USL Championship on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Phoenix Rising Stadium at Wild Horse Pass in Chandler.