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Phoenix Rising vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
4/22/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 10Phoenix Rising Soccer Complex (Scottsdale, Arizona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Phoenix Rising61%
×Draw20%
Sporting KC II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phoenix Rising
2.17
Sporting KC II
1.11

Phoenix Rising creates 95% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 66 away

creates per match

Phoenix Rising
2.17
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Phoenix Rising
1.04
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw
81%
Phoenix Rising or Sporting KC II
80%
Draw or Sporting KC II
39%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
38%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
89%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
64%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
36%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
67%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
30%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
77%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.17

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more
61%
level
20%
Sporting KC II scores more
19%

Phoenix Rising at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Phoenix Rising 2–2 Sporting KC II

Phoenix Rising and Sporting KC II drew 2-2 in USL Championship on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Phoenix Rising Soccer Complex (Scottsdale, Arizona).