Phoenix Rising 2–0 San Diego Loyal: Result & Stats

Phoenix Rising

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Diego Loyal

8/16/2020

USL Championship · Round 13Casino Arizona Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Phoenix Rising50%

×Draw23%

San Diego Loyal27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phoenix RisingExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Loyal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.29

Phoenix Rising

1.81

San Diego Loyal

1.29

Phoenix Rising creates 40% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 59 away

2.17

creates per match

1.54

1.04

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Phoenix Rising

2.17

San Diego Loyal

1.54

allows per match

Phoenix Rising

1.04

San Diego Loyal

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

San Diego Loyal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw

73%

Phoenix Rising or San Diego Loyal

77%

Draw or San Diego Loyal

50%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+

27%

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals

84%

Phoenix Rising 2+ goals

54%

Phoenix Rising 3+ goals

27%

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

72%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

37%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)

64%

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.81

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more

50%

level

23%

San Diego Loyal scores more

27%

Phoenix Rising at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff