Phoenix Rising vs Sacramento Republic — USL Championship 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 132+ matches
Phoenix Rising50%
Sacramento Republic25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Phoenix Rising creates 50% more chances
Season form · 135 home / 132 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Phoenix Rising ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches
Sacramento Republic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 132 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + Sacramento Republic defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.67
Sacramento Republic attack 1.19 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Phoenix Rising at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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Colorado SpringsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Phoenix Rising host Sacramento Republic on Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 20:00. The match is part of the USL Championship 2018/2019 season.
USL Championship: Phoenix Rising 2–2 Sacramento Republic
Phoenix Rising and Sacramento Republic drew 2-2 in USL Championship on April 19, 2025.
Goals: J. Herrera (18'), D. Wanner (34'), J. Margaritha (37'), D. Rivera (78').
The match was played at Wild Horse Pass Stadium.