Juventus vs Bayern Munich — UEFA Champions League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Juventus31%
Bayern Munich46%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bayern Munich creates 23% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 41 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over63
- Under37
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Juventus ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Juventus at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches
Bayern Munich away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Juventus attack 1.84 + Bayern Munich defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.46
Bayern Munich attack 2.56 + Juventus defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.80
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Bayern Munich at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Bayern Munich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
ArsenalBayern München
Liverpool
Tottenham
Barcelona
Chelsea
Sporting CP
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Inter
Paris Saint Germain
NewcastleJuventus
Atletico Madrid
Atalanta
Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund
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Club Brugge KV
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Qarabag
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PSV Eindhoven
Athletic Club
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FC Copenhagen
Ajax
Eintracht Frankfurt
Slavia Praha
Villarreal
Kairat AlmatyIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Juventus host Bayern Munich on Wednesday, 10 April 2013 at 18:45. The match is part of the UEFA Champions League 2026/2027 season.
UEFA Champions League: Juventus 0–2 Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich beat Juventus 2-0 in UEFA Champions League on April 10, 2013.
Goals: M. Mandzukic (64'), C. Pizarro (90+1').
The match was played at Juventus Stadium.