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Pho Hien vs Bóng đá Huế — V.League 2 2020

Pho Hien
Pho Hien
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
12/24/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 8SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Pho Hien55%
×Draw24%
Bóng đá Huế20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pho Hien
1.66
Bóng đá Huế
0.89

Pho Hien creates 87% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pho Hien
1.72
Bóng đá Huế
0.96

allows per match

Pho Hien
0.82
Bóng đá Huế
1.59

finishing

Pho Hien+0.00on par
Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pho Hien ↓

Bóng đá Huế →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pho Hien or draw
80%
Pho Hien or Bóng đá Huế
76%
Draw or Bóng đá Huế
45%

Winning margin

Pho Hien wins by 2+
30%
Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pho Hien 1+ goals
81%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
49%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
23%
Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
59%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
22%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pho Hien (draw refunded)
73%
Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pho Hien at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 50 matches

Bóng đá Huế away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pho Hien attack 1.72 + Bóng đá Huế defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.96 + Pho Hien defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pho Hien scores more
55%
level
24%
Bóng đá Huế scores more
20%

Pho Hien at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Pho Hien 2–1 Bóng đá Huế

Pho Hien beat Bóng đá Huế 2-1 in V.League 2 on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at SVĐ Trung tâm đào tạo trẻ PVF in Liên Nghĩa.