Phnom Penh Crown 3–0 Young Elephant: Result & Stats

Phnom Penh Crown

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Young Elephant

8/16/2023

AFC Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundRSN Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Phnom Penh Crown86%

×Draw9%

Young Elephant5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phnom Penh CrownExpected goals in this matchYoung Elephant

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.50

0.75

Phnom Penh Crown

3.50

Young Elephant

0.75

Phnom Penh Crown creates 367% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Phnom Penh Crown

3.00

Young Elephant

1.00

allows per match

Phnom Penh Crown

0.50

Young Elephant

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phnom Penh Crown+0.00on par

Young Elephant+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phnom Penh Crown ↓

Young Elephant →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–14%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Phnom Penh Crown or draw

95%

Phnom Penh Crown or Young Elephant

91%

Draw or Young Elephant

14%

Winning margin

Phnom Penh Crown wins by 2+

70%

Young Elephant wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Phnom Penh Crown 1+ goals

97%

Phnom Penh Crown 2+ goals

85%

Phnom Penh Crown 3+ goals

66%

Young Elephant 1+ goals

53%

Young Elephant 2+ goals

17%

Young Elephant 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Phnom Penh Crown (draw refunded)

95%

Young Elephant (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phnom Penh Crown at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Young Elephant away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phnom Penh Crown attack 3.00 + Young Elephant defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Young Elephant attack 1.00 + Phnom Penh Crown defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Phnom Penh Crown scores more

86%

level

9%

Young Elephant scores more

5%

Phnom Penh Crown at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Phnom Penh Crown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff