Phnom Penh Crown 4–0 Dynamic Herb Cebu

Phnom Penh Crown

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dynamic Herb Cebu

11/30/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Phnom Penh Crown85%

×Draw10%

Dynamic Herb Cebu5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phnom Penh CrownExpected goals in this matchDynamic Herb Cebu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

0.67

Phnom Penh Crown

3.17

Dynamic Herb Cebu

0.67

Phnom Penh Crown creates 373% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

3.00

creates per match

0.83

0.50

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Phnom Penh Crown

3.00

Dynamic Herb Cebu

0.83

allows per match

Phnom Penh Crown

0.50

Dynamic Herb Cebu

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phnom Penh Crown+0.00on par

Dynamic Herb Cebu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phnom Penh Crown ↓

Dynamic Herb Cebu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Phnom Penh Crown or draw

95%

Phnom Penh Crown or Dynamic Herb Cebu

90%

Draw or Dynamic Herb Cebu

15%

Winning margin

Phnom Penh Crown wins by 2+

67%

Dynamic Herb Cebu wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Phnom Penh Crown 1+ goals

96%

Phnom Penh Crown 2+ goals

82%

Phnom Penh Crown 3+ goals

60%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 1+ goals

49%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 2+ goals

15%

Dynamic Herb Cebu 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Phnom Penh Crown (draw refunded)

94%

Dynamic Herb Cebu (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phnom Penh Crown at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Dynamic Herb Cebu away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phnom Penh Crown attack 3.00 + Dynamic Herb Cebu defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Dynamic Herb Cebu attack 0.83 + Phnom Penh Crown defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Phnom Penh Crown scores more

85%

level

10%

Dynamic Herb Cebu scores more

5%

Phnom Penh Crown at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Phnom Penh Crown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff