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Phitsanulok vs Surin — FA Cup 2018

Phitsanulok
Phitsanulok
FT
2 – 0
Surin
Surin
10/5/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundPhitsanulok Provincial Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Phitsanulok72%
×Draw15%
Surin13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phitsanulok
2.96
Surin
1.20

Phitsanulok creates 147% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Phitsanulok
2.11
Surin
0.40

allows per match

Phitsanulok
2.00
Surin
3.80

finishing

Phitsanulok+0.00on par
Surin+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phitsanulok ↓

Surin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Phitsanulok or draw
87%
Phitsanulok or Surin
85%
Draw or Surin
28%

Winning margin

Phitsanulok wins by 2+
52%
Surin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Phitsanulok 1+ goals
95%
Phitsanulok 2+ goals
79%
Phitsanulok 3+ goals
55%
Surin 1+ goals
70%
Surin 2+ goals
34%
Surin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Phitsanulok (draw refunded)
85%
Surin (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phitsanulok at home — creates 2.11, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Surin away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phitsanulok attack 2.11 + Surin defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.96

Surin attack 0.40 + Phitsanulok defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Phitsanulok scores more
72%
level
15%
Surin scores more
13%

Phitsanulok at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Phitsanulok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Phitsanulok 2–0 Surin

Phitsanulok beat Surin 2-0 in FA Cup on October 5, 2022.

The match was played at Phitsanulok Provincial Sport Stadium in Phitsanulok.