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Phitsanulok vs See Kwae — League Cup 2021

Phitsanulok
Phitsanulok
FT
3 – 2
See Kwae
See Kwae
9/9/2023League CupLeague Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundPhitsanulok Provincial Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Phitsanulok41%
×Draw24%
See Kwae36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phitsanulok
1.62
See Kwae
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Phitsanulok
1.57
See Kwae
1.00

allows per match

Phitsanulok
2.00
See Kwae
1.67

finishing

Phitsanulok+0.00on par
See Kwae+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phitsanulok ↓

See Kwae →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Phitsanulok or draw
64%
Phitsanulok or See Kwae
76%
Draw or See Kwae
59%

Winning margin

Phitsanulok wins by 2+
20%
See Kwae wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Phitsanulok 1+ goals
80%
Phitsanulok 2+ goals
48%
Phitsanulok 3+ goals
22%
See Kwae 1+ goals
78%
See Kwae 2+ goals
44%
See Kwae 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Phitsanulok (draw refunded)
53%
See Kwae (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phitsanulok at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

See Kwae away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phitsanulok attack 1.57 + See Kwae defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

See Kwae attack 1.00 + Phitsanulok defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Phitsanulok scores more
41%
level
24%
See Kwae scores more
36%

Phitsanulok at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Phitsanulok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phitsanulok vs See Kwae

Phitsanulok beat See Kwae 3-2 in League Cup on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Phitsanulok Provincial Sport Stadium in Phitsanulok.