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Phitsanulok vs Samut Sakhon City — FA Cup 2018

Phitsanulok
Phitsanulok
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Samut Sakhon City
Samut Sakhon City
11/2/2022FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundPhitsanulok Provincial Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Phitsanulok44%
×Draw19%
Samut Sakhon City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phitsanulok
2.47
Samut Sakhon City
2.25

Phitsanulok creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Phitsanulok
2.11
Samut Sakhon City
2.50

allows per match

Phitsanulok
2.00
Samut Sakhon City
2.83

finishing

Phitsanulok+0.00on par
Samut Sakhon City+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phitsanulok ↓

Samut Sakhon City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Phitsanulok or draw
63%
Phitsanulok or Samut Sakhon City
81%
Draw or Samut Sakhon City
56%

Winning margin

Phitsanulok wins by 2+
26%
Samut Sakhon City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Phitsanulok 1+ goals
91%
Phitsanulok 2+ goals
70%
Phitsanulok 3+ goals
44%
Samut Sakhon City 1+ goals
89%
Samut Sakhon City 2+ goals
65%
Samut Sakhon City 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Phitsanulok (draw refunded)
55%
Samut Sakhon City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phitsanulok at home — creates 2.11, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Samut Sakhon City away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phitsanulok attack 2.11 + Samut Sakhon City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.47

Samut Sakhon City attack 2.50 + Phitsanulok defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Phitsanulok scores more
44%
level
19%
Samut Sakhon City scores more
37%

Phitsanulok at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Phitsanulok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phitsanulok vs Samut Sakhon City

Phitsanulok beat Samut Sakhon City 5-3 in FA Cup on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Phitsanulok Provincial Sport Stadium in Phitsanulok.