Phitsanulok 2–0 Chainat United: Result & Stats

Phitsanulok

2 – 0

Chainat United

9/28/2022

FA Cup · Qualifying RoundH2H Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Phitsanulok50%

×Draw21%

Chainat United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PhitsanulokExpected goals in this matchChainat United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.50

Phitsanulok

2.05

Chainat United

1.50

Phitsanulok creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

2.11

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Phitsanulok

2.11

Chainat United

1.00

allows per match

Phitsanulok

2.00

Chainat United

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phitsanulok+0.00on par

Chainat United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phitsanulok ↓

Chainat United →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Phitsanulok or draw

72%

Phitsanulok or Chainat United

79%

Draw or Chainat United

50%

Winning margin

Phitsanulok wins by 2+

29%

Chainat United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Phitsanulok 1+ goals

87%

Phitsanulok 2+ goals

61%

Phitsanulok 3+ goals

33%

Chainat United 1+ goals

78%

Chainat United 2+ goals

44%

Chainat United 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Phitsanulok (draw refunded)

64%

Chainat United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Phitsanulok at home — creates 2.11, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Chainat United away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Phitsanulok attack 2.11 + Chainat United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Chainat United attack 1.00 + Phitsanulok defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Phitsanulok scores more

50%

level

21%

Chainat United scores more

28%

Phitsanulok at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Phitsanulok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff