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Phitsanulok vs Bangkok United — FA Cup 2018

Phitsanulok
Phitsanulok
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bangkok United
Bangkok Unitedadvanced
2/8/2023FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Phitsanulok Provincial Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Phitsanulok20%
×Draw20%
Bangkok United60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phitsanulok
1.25
Bangkok United
2.25

Bangkok United creates 80% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Phitsanulok
2.11
Bangkok United
2.50

allows per match

Phitsanulok
2.00
Bangkok United
0.40

finishing

Phitsanulok+0.00on par
Bangkok United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phitsanulok ↓

Bangkok United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Phitsanulok or draw
40%
Phitsanulok or Bangkok United
80%
Draw or Bangkok United
80%

Winning margin

Phitsanulok wins by 2+
8%
Bangkok United wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Phitsanulok 1+ goals
71%
Phitsanulok 2+ goals
36%
Phitsanulok 3+ goals
13%
Bangkok United 1+ goals
89%
Bangkok United 2+ goals
65%
Bangkok United 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Phitsanulok (draw refunded)
26%
Bangkok United (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phitsanulok at home — creates 2.11, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Bangkok United away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phitsanulok attack 2.11 + Bangkok United defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bangkok United attack 2.50 + Phitsanulok defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Phitsanulok scores more
20%
level
20%
Bangkok United scores more
60%

Bangkok United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bangkok United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phitsanulok vs Bangkok United

Phitsanulok and Bangkok United drew 1-1 in FA Cup on February 8, 2023.

The match was played at Phitsanulok Provincial Sport Stadium in Phitsanulok.