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Philippines W vs Uzbekistan W — Friendlies Women 2026

Philippines W
Philippines W
CANC
10:00
Uzbekistan W
Uzbekistan W
10/26/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Philippines W82%
×Draw11%
Uzbekistan W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philippines W
3.63
Uzbekistan W
1.09

Philippines W creates 233% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

creates per match

Philippines W
4.78
Uzbekistan W
0.96

allows per match

Philippines W
1.22
Uzbekistan W
2.48

finishing

Philippines W+0.00on par
Uzbekistan W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippines W ↓

Uzbekistan W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Philippines W or draw
92%
Philippines W or Uzbekistan W
89%
Draw or Uzbekistan W
18%

Winning margin

Philippines W wins by 2+
65%
Uzbekistan W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Philippines W 1+ goals
97%
Philippines W 2+ goals
87%
Philippines W 3+ goals
68%
Uzbekistan W 1+ goals
66%
Uzbekistan W 2+ goals
30%
Uzbekistan W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Philippines W (draw refunded)
92%
Uzbekistan W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippines W at home — creates 4.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Uzbekistan W away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippines W attack 4.78 + Uzbekistan W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 3.63

Uzbekistan W attack 0.96 + Philippines W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Philippines W scores more
82%
level
11%
Uzbekistan W scores more
8%

Philippines W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Philippines W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Philippines W vs Uzbekistan W — Match Preview

Philippines W face Uzbekistan W on October 26, 2025 in this Friendlies Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.