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Philippines W vs Papua New Guinea W — Friendlies Women 2026

Philippines W
Philippines W
FT
9 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Papua New Guinea W
Papua New Guinea W
Q. Quezada 88', 85', 65'
K. Guillou 72' (pen), 24'
I. Natera 55' (OG)
T. Annis 53'
J. Cowart 46'
S. Eggesvik 11'
12/15/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Wanderers Football Park Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Philippines W81%
×Draw10%
Papua New Guinea W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philippines W
4.39
Papua New Guinea W
1.52

Philippines W creates 189% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Philippines W
4.78
Papua New Guinea W
1.83

allows per match

Philippines W
1.22
Papua New Guinea W
4.00

finishing

Philippines W+0.00on par
Papua New Guinea W+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippines W ↓

Papua New Guinea W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

Philippines W or draw
91%
Philippines W or Papua New Guinea W
90%
Draw or Papua New Guinea W
19%

Winning margin

Philippines W wins by 2+
66%
Papua New Guinea W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Philippines W 1+ goals
99%
Philippines W 2+ goals
92%
Philippines W 3+ goals
78%
Papua New Guinea W 1+ goals
78%
Papua New Guinea W 2+ goals
45%
Papua New Guinea W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Philippines W (draw refunded)
90%
Papua New Guinea W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippines W at home — creates 4.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Papua New Guinea W away — creates 1.83, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippines W attack 4.78 + Papua New Guinea W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.39

Papua New Guinea W attack 1.83 + Philippines W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Philippines W scores more
81%
level
10%
Papua New Guinea W scores more
9%

Philippines W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Philippines W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
S. Eggesvik
24'
K. Guillou
46'
K. R. Jota← K. R. Jota
46'
J. Cowart
47'
Y. Gabong← Y. Gabong
53'
T. Annis
55'
I. NateraOwn goal
65'
Q. Quezada
72'
K. GuillouPenalty
83'
C. Maniti← C. Maniti
85'
Q. Quezada
88'
Q. Quezada

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Philippines W vs Papua New Guinea W

Philippines W beat Papua New Guinea W 9-0 in Friendlies Women on December 15, 2022.

Goals: S. Eggesvik (11'), K. Guillou (24', 72' pen), J. Cowart (46'), T. Annis (53'), I. Natera (55' o.g.), Q. Quezada (65', 85', 88').

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park Academy in Sydney.