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Philippines W vs Kenya W — Friendlies Women 2026

Philippines W
Philippines W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Kenya W
Kenya W
S. Bolden 67' (pen)
F. Adhiambo 82'
P. Alukwe 68'
H. Long 37' (OG)
E. Mutukiza 8'
10/30/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Philippines W78%
×Draw12%
Kenya W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philippines W
3.35
Kenya W
1.15

Philippines W creates 191% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Philippines W
4.78
Kenya W
1.08

allows per match

Philippines W
1.22
Kenya W
1.92

finishing

Philippines W+0.00on par
Kenya W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippines W ↓

Kenya W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Philippines W or draw
90%
Philippines W or Kenya W
88%
Draw or Kenya W
22%

Winning margin

Philippines W wins by 2+
60%
Kenya W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Philippines W 1+ goals
96%
Philippines W 2+ goals
84%
Philippines W 3+ goals
63%
Kenya W 1+ goals
68%
Kenya W 2+ goals
32%
Kenya W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Philippines W (draw refunded)
89%
Kenya W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippines W at home — creates 4.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Kenya W away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippines W attack 4.78 + Kenya W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 3.35

Kenya W attack 1.08 + Philippines W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Philippines W scores more
78%
level
12%
Kenya W scores more
10%

Philippines W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Philippines W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
E. Mutukiza
37'
H. LongOwn goal
53'
J. Sawicki← K. Hawkinson
53'
J. Connolly← J. Connolly
67'
S. BoldenPenalty
68'
P. Alukwe
78'
V. Nasaka
82'
F. Adhiambo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Philippines W 1–4 Kenya W

Kenya W beat Philippines W 4-1 in Friendlies Women on October 30, 2024.

Goals: E. Mutukiza (8'), H. Long (37' o.g.), S. Bolden (67' pen), P. Alukwe (68'), F. Adhiambo (82').

The match was played at Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi Stadyumu in Side.