Philippines W 0–1 Chinese Taipei W: Result & Stats

Philippines W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chinese Taipei W

S. Matsunaga 27'

6/3/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesRizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Philippines W79%

×Draw12%

Chinese Taipei W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philippines WExpected goals in this matchChinese Taipei W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.46

1.17

Philippines W

3.46

Chinese Taipei W

1.17

Philippines W creates 196% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

4.78

creates per match

1.13

1.22

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Philippines W

4.78

Chinese Taipei W

1.13

allows per match

Philippines W

1.22

Chinese Taipei W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philippines W+0.00on par

Chinese Taipei W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippines W ↓

Chinese Taipei W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Philippines W or draw

91%

Philippines W or Chinese Taipei W

88%

Draw or Chinese Taipei W

21%

Winning margin

Philippines W wins by 2+

61%

Chinese Taipei W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Philippines W 1+ goals

97%

Philippines W 2+ goals

85%

Philippines W 3+ goals

65%

Chinese Taipei W 1+ goals

69%

Chinese Taipei W 2+ goals

33%

Chinese Taipei W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Philippines W (draw refunded)

89%

Chinese Taipei W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippines W at home — creates 4.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Chinese Taipei W away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippines W attack 4.78 + Chinese Taipei W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 3.46

Chinese Taipei W attack 1.13 + Philippines W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Philippines W scores more

79%

level

12%

Chinese Taipei W scores more

9%

Philippines W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Philippines W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

S. Matsunaga

63'

C. Ying

Philippines

Chinese

1

3

6

9

10

⚽

12

17

19

21

26

28

1

3

5

6

7

8

10

11

13

20

21

Manager: Mark Gabriele Torcaso

Philippines W substitutes

CesarPerezSahirulHawkinsonBarkerPasionVillapandoCarpioPalaciosVillasinBarkerMcSwigan

Manager: Hiu Ming Chan

Friendlies Women: Philippines W 0–1 Chinese Taipei W

Chinese Taipei W beat Philippines W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on June 3, 2025.

Goals: S. Matsunaga (27').

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.

Philippines W vs Chinese Taipei W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Philippines W 0–1 Chinese Taipei W