Philippines 2–4 Vietnam: Result & Stats

Philippines

FT

2 – 4

Vietnam

12/31/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Grand Hamad Stadium (Al-Arabi Stadium) (ad-Dōha (Doha))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Philippines36%

×Draw20%

Vietnam44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PhilippinesExpected goals in this matchVietnam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

2.25

Philippines

2.04

Vietnam

2.25

Vietnam creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.83

creates per match

3.00

1.50

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Philippines

2.83

Vietnam

3.00

allows per match

Philippines

1.50

Vietnam

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philippines+0.00on par

Vietnam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippines ↓

Vietnam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Philippines or draw

56%

Philippines or Vietnam

80%

Draw or Vietnam

64%

Winning margin

Philippines wins by 2+

19%

Vietnam wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Philippines 1+ goals

87%

Philippines 2+ goals

60%

Philippines 3+ goals

33%

Vietnam 1+ goals

89%

Vietnam 2+ goals

65%

Vietnam 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Philippines (draw refunded)

45%

Vietnam (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippines at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Vietnam away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippines attack 2.83 + Vietnam defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

Vietnam attack 3.00 + Philippines defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Philippines scores more

36%

level

20%

Vietnam scores more

44%

Vietnam at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vietnam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff