Philippines U23 2–1 Brunei U23: Result & Stats

Philippines U23

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brunei U23

S. Reyes 58'

D. Chung 48'

H. Said 59'

2/20/2022

League #908 · Group Stage - 3Prince Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Philippines U2378%

×Draw14%

Brunei U238%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philippines U23Expected goals in this matchBrunei U23

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

0.83

Philippines U23

2.83

Brunei U23

0.83

Philippines U23 creates 241% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

0.33

1.33

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Philippines U23

1.67

Brunei U23

0.33

allows per match

Philippines U23

1.33

Brunei U23

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philippines U23+0.00on par

Brunei U23+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippines U23 ↓

Brunei U23 →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Philippines U23 or draw

92%

Philippines U23 or Brunei U23

86%

Draw or Brunei U23

22%

Winning margin

Philippines U23 wins by 2+

58%

Brunei U23 wins by 2+

Team goals

Philippines U23 1+ goals

94%

Philippines U23 2+ goals

77%

Philippines U23 3+ goals

53%

Brunei U23 1+ goals

56%

Brunei U23 2+ goals

20%

Brunei U23 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Philippines U23 (draw refunded)

90%

Brunei U23 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Philippines U23 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Brunei U23 away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Philippines U23 attack 1.67 + Brunei U23 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Brunei U23 attack 0.33 + Philippines U23 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Philippines U23 scores more

78%

level

14%

Brunei U23 scores more

Philippines U23 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Philippines U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Aldeguer← I. Ouano

46'

L. Ocampo← M. Suba

48'

D. Chung↳ A. Aldeguer

58'

S. Reyes↳ A. Aldeguer

59'

68'

68'

78'

78'

J. Kallukaran← G. Encabo

86'

S. Ghazali← S. Nizam

Philippines

Brunei

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Chung

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Hall

46'▲A. Aldeguer←▼I. Ouano

46'▲L. Ocampo←▼M. Suba

68'▲K. Hayes←▼D. Chung

78'▲J. Peña←▼S. Reyes

78'▲J. Kallukaran←▼G. Encabo

Philippines U23 substitutes

27Aldeguer26Ocampo9Hayes14Peña25Kallukaran22Semblante21Ortega16Bugas5Liao11McDaniel4Maniti1Kammeraad

Manager: A. Jumat

68'▲N. Azaman←▼A. Ramli

86'▲S. Ghazali←▼S. Nizam

Brunei U23 substitutes

15Azaman12Ghazali22Ghani2Zaidi13Khalid14Latip20Mardianni26Hossaini23Masrazni4Jaini25Wahid3Nokman