Philippines U19 1–3 Myanmar U19: Result & Stats

Philippines U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Myanmar U19

J. Rosquillo 30'

Z. Thein Win 42'

T. Thina Zaw 7'

H. Swan 4'

7/6/2022

AFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 3Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Philippines U1918%

×Draw16%

Myanmar U1966%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philippines U19Expected goals in this matchMyanmar U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

3.05

Philippines U19

1.60

Myanmar U19

3.05

Myanmar U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.60

4.50

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Philippines U19

1.00

Myanmar U19

1.60

allows per match

Philippines U19

4.50

Myanmar U19

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Philippines U19+0.00on par

Myanmar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippines U19 ↓

Myanmar U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Philippines U19 or draw

34%

Philippines U19 or Myanmar U19

84%

Draw or Myanmar U19

82%

Winning margin

Philippines U19 wins by 2+

8%

Myanmar U19 wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Philippines U19 1+ goals

80%

Philippines U19 2+ goals

47%

Philippines U19 3+ goals

22%

Myanmar U19 1+ goals

95%

Myanmar U19 2+ goals

80%

Myanmar U19 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Philippines U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Myanmar U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippines U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

Myanmar U19 away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippines U19 attack 1.00 + Myanmar U19 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Myanmar U19 attack 1.60 + Philippines U19 defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Philippines U19 scores more

18%

level

16%

Myanmar U19 scores more

66%

Myanmar U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Myanmar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

H. Swan

7'

T. Thina Zaw

30'

J. Rosquillo

42'

Z. Thein Win

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff