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Philippines U19 vs Australia U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Philippines U19
Philippines U19
FT
0 – 10
HT: 0 – 3
Australia U19
Australia U19
M. Macallister 82', 70'
M. Memeti 71', 66', 41', 27', 8' (pen)
A. Nunes 64' (pen)
L. Wong 61', 58'
6/3/2026AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 1Stadion Madya Atletik Sumatera Utara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Philippines U192%
×Draw5%
Australia U1994%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philippines U19
0.50
Australia U19
4.25

Australia U19 creates 750% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Philippines U19
1.00
Australia U19
4.00

allows per match

Philippines U19
4.50
Australia U19
0.00

finishing

Philippines U19+0.00on par
Australia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippines U19 ↓

Australia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–29%
0–313%
0–414%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–36%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (14%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Philippines U19 or draw
6%
Philippines U19 or Australia U19
95%
Draw or Australia U19
98%

Winning margin

Philippines U19 wins by 2+
0%
Australia U19 wins by 2+
83%

Team goals

Philippines U19 1+ goals
39%
Philippines U19 2+ goals
9%
Philippines U19 3+ goals
1%
Australia U19 1+ goals
98%
Australia U19 2+ goals
91%
Australia U19 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

Philippines U19 (draw refunded)
2%
Australia U19 (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippines U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

Australia U19 away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippines U19 attack 1.00 + Australia U19 defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Australia U19 attack 4.00 + Philippines U19 defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 4.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Philippines U19 scores more
2%
level
5%
Australia U19 scores more
94%

Australia U19 at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Australia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. MemetiPenalty
27'
M. Memeti
41'
M. Memeti
58'
L. Wong
61'
L. Wong
64'
A. NunesPenalty
66'
M. Memeti
70'
M. Macallister
71'
M. Memeti
82'
M. Macallister

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF U19 Championship: Philippines U19 0–10 Australia U19

Australia U19 beat Philippines U19 10-0 in AFF U19 Championship on June 3, 2026.

Goals: M. Memeti (8' pen, 27', 41', 66', 71'), L. Wong (58', 61'), A. Nunes (64' pen), M. Macallister (70', 82').

The match was played at Stadion Madya Atletik Sumatera Utara in Medan.