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Philippine Army vs Manila Montet — PFL 2020

Philippine Army
Philippine Army
FT
5 – 0
Manila Montet
Manila Montet
5/29/2024PFLPFL · Round 7Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Philippine Army71%
×Draw13%
Manila Montet15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Philippine Army
4.01
Manila Montet
1.92

Philippine Army creates 109% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

creates per match

Philippine Army
0.78
Manila Montet
0.00

allows per match

Philippine Army
3.83
Manila Montet
7.25

finishing

Philippine Army+0.00on par
Manila Montet+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Philippine Army ↓

Manila Montet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Philippine Army or draw
85%
Philippine Army or Manila Montet
87%
Draw or Manila Montet
29%

Winning margin

Philippine Army wins by 2+
54%
Manila Montet wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Philippine Army 1+ goals
98%
Philippine Army 2+ goals
90%
Philippine Army 3+ goals
73%
Manila Montet 1+ goals
85%
Manila Montet 2+ goals
57%
Manila Montet 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Philippine Army (draw refunded)
82%
Manila Montet (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Philippine Army at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.83 · 18 matches

Manila Montet away — creates 0.00, concedes 7.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Philippine Army attack 0.78 + Manila Montet defence 7.25 → ÷2 → 4.01

Manila Montet attack 0.00 + Philippine Army defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Philippine Army scores more
71%
level
13%
Manila Montet scores more
15%

Philippine Army at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Philippine Army will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Philippine Army 5–0 Manila Montet

Philippine Army beat Manila Montet 5-0 in PFL on May 29, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.